Friday, October 26, 2007

Professional Overconfidence

“A severe depression like that of 1920-21 is outside the range of probability” - Harvard Economic Society, Nov 16, 1929

To keep perspective I try remember that professionals built the "unsinkable" Titanic, while amateurs supposedly built the arc.
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2 comments:

gavwat said...

I hope the ark you mention isn't the one from the fairy tales?

http://www.abarnett.demon.co.uk/atheism/noahs_ark.html

October 29, 2007 at 9:28 AM
Jerry Argyriou said...

Gavo, you are correct - my reference was to the fairy tale, thinly acknowledged with 'supposed'. See it as the 'pop' analogy to protect us from automatic (lazy) acceptance of professional opinion. Critical thinking should always be applied.

November 4, 2007 at 11:44 PM

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