Wednesday, September 19, 2007

Famous last words...

"They couldn't hit an elephant from this dist_____"

General John B Sedgwick
Union Army Civil War officer's last words,
uttered during the battle of Spotsylvania, 1864

While one can argue that the above event is evidence of Black Swan theory, it seems overconfidence is an almost genetic trait in us.

Seeing entrepreneurs pitch "conservative" revenue projections to venture capital companies is an almost universal example of overconfidence. Yet, on the bright side, at least they don't get to pay the ultimate price for being wrong.



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