Whether your chose box A, B or C, my prediction is that after you were told that the money was not in one of either of the two remaining boxes, you did NOT change your original choice. Yet, not changing is the irrational decision. Changing improves your odds from 33% to 50%. This clever experiment [apologies to designer(s) as I don't know who to credit] apparently has an amazing 99% decision error incidence - hardly anybody changes their original choice. [Ed: I don't feel so bad now...] Also consider that the way this example was set up, you were primed to look for errors in judgement. The real world is not so generous.
Overbidding the 'buy it now' price on Ebay and the $1m box example are errors of the same fundamental issue: perceived ownership. That is, because for a moment we have the highest bid (or we chose box X), we have an emotional commitment to that choice, clouding further rational judgement. [Ed: Fine, but I STILL think overbidding on Ebay is stupid...]
Bridge Design Experiment:This experiment was designed by Jim Shur. The methodology can be found in his book "Choosing by Advantages" and is used extensively in Value Engineering.
The answer will be delayed till October.
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